Testimony of Berhanu Nega, Ph.D
Associate Professor of Economics, Bucknell University
Before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations
June 20, 2013
“Ethiopia After Meles: The Future of Democracy and Human Rights”
Good Morning Chairman Smith, Ranking Member Bass, Distinguished
Members
of the House Africa Subcommittee. Thank you for inviting me to
speak with you
today. It is indeed a great honor and privilege to have the
opportunity to appear
before you to discuss issues related to the future of Democracy
and Human Rights
in Ethiopia.
1. The State of Human Rights and Democratization in Ethiopia
As you are aware Mr. Chairman, Ethiopia’s human rights record is
abysmal by
all accounts and continues to deteriorate. The current regime,
which has been in
power for the last 21 years, continues to engage in the systematic
violation of
international standards with regard to fundamental human rights.
The most significant assault on human rights include restrictions on:
1) Freedom of expression;
2) Freedom of association and political rights;
3) Interference in religious affairs;
4) Ethnic cleansing against Amharas and the forced displacement of
indigenous people from ancestral lands;
5) Manipulation of the justice system for politically motivated
charges and trials Following the death of Meles Zenawi, many hoped that there would
be an opportunity for an opening in the political space. However the
current regime continues to flout international standards. Indeed, the
climate post the much2 anticipated National Elections of 2005, widely
acknowledged as the most contested election in Ethiopian history,
culminating in bloodshed and vote rigging, has produced severe government clampdown on basic freedoms,particularly freedom
of expression and association, increased police monitoring of
peaceful and lawful activities, arbitrary arrest of human rights
defenders, opposition leaders and attacks on civil society.
With the passage of the draconian Charities and Societies
Proclamation
(CSO law) and Anti-Terrorism law in 2009, independent civil
society and nongovernmental
organizations NGOs (domestic and international) have been forced
to cease their operation due to these very restrictive new laws,
effectively
criminalizing internationally recognized rights.1
The brazen and relentless assault on free expression and access to
information, arbitrary detention of human rights activists, civil
society and opposition leaders has severely compromised the electoral
environment in Ethiopia. There is little independent criticism and
virtually no political opposition in the country.
Freedom of Expression
The Ethiopian government censors free speech by routinely
blocking websites, closing publishing houses, confiscating newspapers,
imprisoning journalists and jamming international media such as the Voice
of America (VOA)
as well as diaspora based independent media such as Ethiopian
Satellite Television(ESAT). Journalists, brave enough to practice their trade
with integrity risk imprisonment.
According to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), Ethiopia
is the leading jailer of journalists in Sub-Sahara Africa and ranks among
the top ten in the World. Among the most noted journalists languishing in
jail are award winning
Columnist /blogger Eskinder Nega2, the recipient of the 2012
PEN/Barbara
1
http://www.boell.de/worldwide/africa/africa-closure-heinrich-boell-foundationoffice-
ethiopia-background-16060.html
2
http://www.pen.org/press-release/2012/04/12/top-pen-prize-honor-eskinder-negajailed-
ethiopian-journalist-and-blogger
3 Goldsmith Freedom to Write Award and Reyot Alemu3, winner
of the 2013
UNESCO-Guillermo Cano World Press Freedom Prize. Last year, the
International
Women’s Media Foundation bestowed Courage in Journalism Award on
Ms.
Alemu in absentia.
Two Swedish journalists (freed in 2012) who entered the country
illegally to
report on the ongoing conflict in the Ogaden were among the
imprisoned journalists.
4 Ethiopia also ranks 3rd in the world in terms of countries
from which journalists have fled, with 49 journalists that have been
exiled as a result of government persecution and iron fisted control of
the independent media.
5 The widespread international condemnations and repeated
calls from various rights groups and influential Parliamentarians for the
release of Ethiopian journalists have been completely ignored by the regime
in power.
6 Continued U.S. support of a regime that represses a free
press is also in violation of its own constitutional guarantee of the
right to free speech. It is clear that the Ethiopian people need
information to make informed participatory decisions about their form of
government, leaders and lives. Effectiveness of access to a free press
cannot be evaluated until such time as the people have the
right to free media.
Freedom of Association and Political Rights
Political space has been severely curtailed in Ethiopia. So much
so, that in the Parliamentary Election of 2010, which was conducted in an
environment that
3http://www.thedailybeast.com/witw/articles/2013/04/18/reeyot-alemu-ethiopia-sjailed-
truth-teller.html
4 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19960209
5 http://www.cpj.org/2013/02/attacks-on-the-press-in-2012
ethiopia.php
6
http://www.freedom-now.org/news/for-immediate-release-16-members-of-theeuropean-
parliament-call-for-the-release-of-imprisoned-ethiopian-journalisteskinder-nega/
4 was not conducive to free and fair elections, the ruling
party “won” by a jawdropping 99.6%. As a result, the Ethiopian People’s
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) controls 545 of the 547 seat in
Parliament to remain in power until 2015. The 2010 election gives ample
evidence that Ethiopia is an authoritarian dictatorship that holds sham
elections every 5 years and has failed to develop
democratic institutions in the two decades that EPRDF has been in
power.
7 By all reasonable accounts, EPRDF has been rolling back the
clock to the country’s dictatorial Derg era. The regime remains extremely
suspicious of popular participation and even more so of party politics. It
has successfully excluded,imprisoned, or exiled many who could possibly
challenge its authority. The ruling
party continues to command an unchecked monopoly on the military
and security forces. Under these stifling conditions and with very little
chance for political reform, the prospects for genuine democracy in Ethiopia
remains bleak.
The death of Meles, last year, has not changed the nature of the
one party state that he carefully and brutally constructed. In the recent
2013 nationwide local election, the ruling party ran by itself to “win”
almost all of the 3.8 million supposedly contested seats. 96% of the
candidates were from the ruling party and the remaining 4% from its
affiliated parties. The opposition didn’t even compete in
the election. The “independent” election board called it “a
confirmation of the maturity of democratization in the country.”
Interference in Religious Affairs
Article 27 of the Ethiopian Constitution guarantees freedom of
religion and delineates the strict separation of church and state.
However, the Ethiopian regime in contravention to its own constitution has
consistently interfered in the affairs of
both the Christian and Muslim religions. The government has
effectively used the Ethiopian Orthodox Church as a tool for political
control by manipulating the leadership of the powerful church. This
included election of the former Patriarch Abune Paulos and the new
Patriarch Abune Mathias. This gross interference in the affairs of the
Orthodox Church has resulted in an unfortunate split of the Holy
7 http://www.eueom.eu/files/pressreleases/english/final-report-eueom-ethiopia-
08112010_en.pdf
5 Synod into two competing power centers inside Ethiopia and
in the diaspora with
the influential Orthodox Church in Ethiopia aligning itself with
the EPRDF regime.
Religious leaders (Orthodox, Muslim, Protestant, and others) are
often pressured to issue broadcasted statements and messages of support
for major EPRDF actions, with the government seeking support of their
religious communities.
8 In 2012, the regime put forth plans to build a sugar
factory, sugar cane plantation and an irrigation dam on the property of
the Waldeba Monastery in
Gondar –Northern Ethiopia, one of the holiest sites in Orthodox
Christendom. In order to make way for the construction, the regime
brazenly desecrated grave sites and destroyed three historical churches on
the grounds of the famous Monastery.
Monks who reside on the property were forcibly removed to make way
for this massive project. The unprecedented assault on the monastic
community’s way of life and its religious learning centers is deeply
disturbing and reprehensible.
Even the communist Derg regime respected the sanctity of the
Waldeba Monastery and in no way interfered in its internal affairs. Even
when the monks were resisting this forced eviction and desecration, the
church hierarchy was compelled to officially condone the actions of the
government.
Ethiopian Muslims as well have been engaged in peaceful protest
against government interference in their religious affairs since 2011. The
leaders of the peaceful protests accuse the Ethiopian government of trying
to impose the al-Ahbash Islamic sect on the country's Muslim community, which
traditionally practices the Sufi form of Islam.
The opposition to Ahbash by Ethiopian Muslims is not particularly
theological. The protesters oppose the blatant interference of the
state in their religion by officially sponsoring the movement, providing
finance, and forcing the Islamic Council to adopt this version of
Islam, while attacking the more popular and local variant as tainted with
“extremist” views with a political agenda.9
8
http://news.yahoo.com/ethiopia-elects-leader-orthodox-church-172547906.html
9 http://www.irinnews.org/report/96787/6
Instead of resolving the conflict peacefully, the regime resorted
to a brutal crackdown against the peaceful protestors by arresting their
leaders and closing their newspaper. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has strongly
denounced the politically motivated detention and trial of the Muslim
leaders.10 Such brazen interference on religion is bound to have serious
consequences to the stability of the country in the future.
Ethnic Cleansing of Amharas and Forced Displacement of Indigenous
People From Ancestral Lands
Article 32 of the Ethiopian Constitution guarantees freedom of
movement within the national territory. Ethiopia is also a signatory to
several conventions, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,
International Convention on Civil and Political Rights, African Charter on
Human and Peoples’ Rights, which,
clearly state that a citizen has the right to work and live in any
part of his or her country.
However, ethnic Amharas have been subjected to forcible eviction
from Guraferda Bench-Maji in Southern Regional State as well as from Beni
Shangul regions of Western Ethiopia since 2012. Targeting Amharas, one of
the largest ethnic groups in Ethiopia, for illegal deportation, is a
barbaric act that will have dire consequences for fostering ethnic harmony
in Ethiopia. Stoking hatred will only serve to destabilize the country.
10
http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/04/02/ethiopia-muslim-protesters-face-unfairtrial;
http://www.voanews.com/content/muslim-protests-ethiopia-reveal-religious-faultlines/1452546.html;
http://www.uscirf.gov/news-room/press-releases/3859-1182012-uscirf-statementuscirf-
deeply-concerned-by-emerging-religious-freedom-violations
inethiopia.
html;
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2013/0214/Ethiopia-airs-jihadi-filmamid-
sensitive-Muslim-protest-trial
7 In interviews with ESAT, victims, mostly women and
children, provided horrific details about being dragged from their homes
with nothing else but the clothes on their back. Although the exact number
of displaced families is hard to come by due to news black outs, the
estimates are in the high thousands according to clandestine radio
interviews with some victims.11 Displacement of indigenous people is
rampant in Afar, Gambella and Omo regions as a result of ancestral lands
being sold to investors by the government
without compensation or even a modicum of consultation with the
affected population. The unprecedented land giveaway is also taking place,
at a massive scale, mainly in the lowlands of Ethiopia where the country’s
minority ethnic groups and pastoralists live. These forced displacements
of indigenous people are in contravention of most recognized human rights
standards.
Human Rights Watch has documented in its report that the land
grabs are being carried out in contravention of domestic and international
human rights standards and without meaningful consultation, consent, or
compensation for loss of land, livelihoods, food security, and access to
vital subsistence resources.12
The Oakland Institute, an influential and highly respected think
tank, has issued a comprehensive report on the land grab issue and its
consequences on vulnerable communities in Ethiopia.13
11
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2013/04/11/ethiopia-accused-of-ethnic-cleansingover- mass-amhara-evictions/;
http://www.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/2012/af/204120.htm
12
http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/06/18/ethiopia-pastoralists-forced-their-landsugar-plantations;
http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/ethiopia0112webwcover_0.pdf
13 http://www.oaklandinstitute.org/land-deals-africa-ethiopia
8 Manipulation of the Justice System for Politically
Motivated Charges andTrials
Article 78 of the Ethiopian constitution promulgates the
establishment of an independent Judiciary. In reality, the judiciary is
the most politicized branch of the government with loyal, hand-picked
judges that serve as the hand maiden of the regime. The justice system has
been used time and again as a tool of “persecution by prosecution” of real
and perceived political enemies of the regime. Most Ethiopians have little
confidence in the impartiality and neutrality of the judiciary and it is
widely regarded as an institution that has become a mere extension
of ruling party power.
2. The Possibility of Reforms after Meles
The potential for reforms under the current government, which
forms the second part of this discussion, is at once very critical as well
as potentially controversial because a discussion about the future by its
very nature is speculative. In my mind, this issue has two parts. The
first is my own assessment of the possibility of internally driven reform
initiated by the current regime. As I
will detail in a minute, I don’t believe such reform is possible.
So the second issue is a follow up to the first, in case my response is in
the negative. If no reform, what is going to happen in the near future?
Let me address both of these issues candidly.
Much as I wish, I don’t see the possibility of an internally
driven (by the ruling party) reform leading to a genuine democratic
dispensation in Ethiopia. The regime has much to lose through such a
reform. The ruling elite have committed too many human rights crimes (in
the Ogaden, in Addis Ababa, Oromia…etc.) and have
accumulated too much wealth through rampant corruption. Indeed,
they have antagonized the population too much to feel that they can
continue to enjoy a peaceful life after relinquishing power--which would
be inevitable if there was to be a truly free and fair election. Instead,
they believe that they can somehow survive through total repression, in so
far as they can get the foreign aid resources
as well as the diplomatic support that would help them keep the
lid on any potential resistance to their power.
The only change that Meles’ death has brought to this situation is
that it has revealed the tenuous nature of this calculation as it has
brought to the open the internal conflict and bickering within the ruling
coalition. In the absence of Meles’clever manipulation of the international
community, it is not entirely clear how
9 long the West will be willing to bankroll a regime as the
instability starts topublicly manifest itself. This takes me to the second
part of this issue. So, what is going to happen if there is no possibility
of reform coming from the government? Would Ethiopians simply accept
tyranny and live this humiliating existence indefinitely? If I
know anything about the Ethiopian character, that is one bet that I am not
willing to take. That is why, unfortunately, my assessment is rather
pessimistic. I think the government’s capacity for total suppression is
going to be challenged rather dramatically in the near future. Even if the
government can put a lid on the urban based opposition to its rule (which
could have led to a potentially peaceful
transition), its only effect is going to be to further legitimize
an armed resistance against its rule.
Of course, armed resistance against the regime is not new. From
the Ogaden to Afar and Gambella there are all kinds of armed opposition
groups that are waging low intensity armed struggle against the regime.
All these, however, were more narrowly based and without a broad societal
appeal to mobilize a unified opposition across the country. Most people
opposed to the regime, until recently, believed that a peaceful
resistance, led by the legal opposition, could lead towards peaceful
change and that this is the preferred outcome as it avoids
potential bloodshed.
But, as the government simply refuses to reform, intensifies its
repression,deliberately decimates the legal opposition and continues to
antagonize people in all parts of the country, armed resistance has become
an acceptable form of struggle. In some parts of the country aggrieved
people have started to simply go into the bushes, without even taking an
organized form. Furthermore, the various
armed groups have started to seriously talk about unifying their
actions and their vision for a democratic future, as the public’s
attention shifts from the “peaceful opposition” to the armed groups as
their last best hope for ending the humiliation and freeing themselves
from tyranny
3. What Can the US and Its Allies Do to Engender Reform?
The Ethiopian regime has created a stifling environment wherein
those within the prison walls and those outside of them are terrorized by
the brutal acts of a regime that has continuously been censured by
respected rights groups for its lack of adherence to international human
rights standards.
10 Ethnicity permeates politics and the ruling party has been
unable and unwilling to create a broader political base in this complex
and diverse country.
The leaders of the Tigrai People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the
dominant force within the governing EPRDF coalition came to power by
winning a civil war, therefore its leaders believe in the importance of
force. They also believe in strong political control, limited popular
participation, and crony capitalism that allows for
a strong presence of the state in the economy to distribute rent
among the political elite.
The regime uses this ill-gotten wealth to hire PR firms and
Lobbyists in the West, particularly in the United States, to promote
Ethiopia’s image as a modern and modernizing country under TPLF/EPRDF
tutelage. The message is repeated and consistent at various international
forums where officials speak at great length
of Ethiopia’s virtues -- its steady economic growth, its supposed
political stability and its bright future. However, none of these virtues
is real.
Present day Ethiopia is not a confident, growing, dynamic, modern
country. Rather, it’s fast becoming a police state ruled by a regime that
is weak, fearful,paranoid and intolerant of dissent. A democratic multi-party
system, enshrined in the constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic
of Ethiopia adopted in 1994
remains an empty rhetoric as long as TPLF (with its affiliates) is
determined to remain the “ruling party for life.” The government is
skilled at using the rhetoric of democracy and good governance in order to
assure the continuation of support by the international donor community,
but such statements rarely lead to tangible
reform. Even if we accept the Ethiopian government’s dubious
and controversial claims of rapid economic growth in the past decade14
Ethiopia remains ranked among the poorest and least developed countries in
the world. In the 2012 Human Development Index, Ethiopia ranked 173 out of
186 countries. The so-called
economic growth has not filtered down to the poorest people in
Ethiopia that are 14 B.Nega “No Shortcut to Stability: Democratic
Accountability and Sustainable Development in Ethiopia
Social Research Vol.77, No.4:Winter 2010
11 mired in abject poverty. Corruption is rampant and the
scope of Ethiopia’s capital flight is frightening.
According to a recent report by Global Financial Integrity,
Ethiopia lost $11.7 Billion to outflows of ill-gotten gains between 2000
and 2009.15 One of theauthors of the report, Sarah Freitas, wrote, “The
people of Ethiopia are being bled dry, no matter how hard they try
to fight their way out of absolute destitution and poverty, they will be
swimming upstream against the current of illicit capital
leakage.” The level of illicit leakage out of the country reached
a mind blowing $5.6 Billion in 2010 alone, a sum greater than the value of
the country’s total exports combined with the total foreign aid it
received from abroad for that year.
As further testament to the unwillingness of the regime to
democratize the country, the TPLF has engaged repeatedly in electoral
corruption and brutal repression. It rules effectively by force and has
consolidated its power at the expense of the overwhelming majority of
Ethiopia’s large and diverse population.
The repressive stability that exists in Ethiopia today is
detrimental to the long term internal as well as regional stability of the
Horn of Africa. Clearly, this state of affairs cannot continue. If it
does, it can only end in a massive conflict with a potential to
destabilize the whole region. Something must be done urgently to avoid a
looming disaster. So, what can the US do to change this trajectory? In my
view, the obvious starting point is to acknowledge the fact
that the current policy of “constructive engagement” with this
brutal regime has not worked to produce the desired results of stability
in the country and the wider region. Instead, it has emboldened the regime
to continue to do what it has been
doing in the past. A reconstructed policy for Ethiopia, I believe,
should beanchored in both the core values of the United States, as well as on
the basis of strategic national security considerations. I submit that
both of these considerations require that Ethiopia become an internally
peaceful, stable and democratic country
that contributes positively to the stability of the region. If
this is a reasonable policy position consistent with US long term
strategic interests, then there is a lot 15
http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2011/12/05/ethiopian-illicit-outflows-doubled-in-2009-
new-report-says/?mod=google_news_blog
12 that the US and its allies can do to push the current
regime to move in that direction.
Ethiopia suffers from an absence of democracy and the United
States Government has received multiple reports of the dictatorial nature
of the Ethiopian government. US-Ethiopia relationship should be based on
democratic governance, respect for the rule of law and the promotion and
protection of human rights. Support for democracy, respect for fundamental
human rights and the rule
of law are core American values. The US and its allies will do
well to recognize more firmly that Ethiopian aspirations for democracy are
genuine and legitimate.
The United States Government, along with its allies, consistently
display a politically weak reaction to the profound abrogation of
Ethiopia’s obligations under international law, not to mention its own
constitution by turning a blind eye to the very repressive environment
that exists in Ethiopia today. The United States
Government should use its foreign aid to reward countries that
govern themselves well and not use its foreign aid to prop up regimes like
the regime in Ethiopia that has become the poster child for repression and
brutality throughout Africa. Furthermore, the United States Government
should review its development
aid policy towards Ethiopia so that aid can be used more
effectively to advance the cause of human rights and respect for the rule
of law along with other humanitarian considerations. Lack of sanction for
human rights abuses encourages tyranny and will not help economic
wellbeing in the long run. Only severe rebuke from and withdrawal of
financial support by the United States Government and its allies
will deter the Ethiopian government from its current trajectory.
It is also advisable for the United States Government, to press
persistently and publicly for good and sustainable governance reforms in
Ethiopia and work from the principles of mutually beneficial cooperation
in a spirit of critical partnership.
It’s understandable that the United States Government recognizes
and respects the sovereignty of nation-states and seeks not to intervene
unless its national security is at stake. However, where one is a donor
entity (in fact the largest donor) to a government that continues to
flaunt not only internationally
recognized rights but also American standards, the United States
Government is
13
compromising its stated mission and core values by aligning itself
with and
funding a brutal regime. Not giving your money to support repression
is no
intervention. Equally importantly, at least in this case, there is
a large national
security stake in the stability of Ethiopia, which can only come
from meaningful
and inclusive democratization.
A government that subjects its citizenry to its own brand of
terrorism cannot
be entrusted to safeguard the interests of the United States
Government. The status
quo in Ethiopia is intolerable and unacceptable. In a de facto
one-party state like
Ethiopia, where opposition parties have been systematically
decimated, there is no
one to represent the dreams, expectations and criticisms of the
public. Loss of hope
towards a peaceful transition to democracy is rapidly influencing
people to
consider alternative means of struggle.
With patience running out and frustration taking hold among the
population,
more and more political organizations are considering armed
struggle (Ogaden
National Liberation Front, Oromo Liberation Front, Tigrai People’s
Democratic
Movement, AFAR-Gadille, Gambella Nilotic Movement…etc.) as the
only option
to get rid of the brutal dictatorships. Recent disturbing reports
from Agew Zone-
Northern Ethiopia and from parts of Gambella and Afar indicate
that ordinary
peasants have started to arm themselves to challenge the
government by force.
Ethiopia’s heterogeneous society and the political elite are
deeply divided. The
inflexible political attitude and the monopolization of power in
the hands of the
current regime has left a majority of the population excluded from
political
participation or access to economic benefits. As a result, violent
clashes are going
to be more common in the near future leading to internal
instability in the most
populous country in East Africa. The Horn of Africa is of
significant geostrategic
value to U.S. interests and any type of instability in Ethiopia
will have dire
consequences for the entire region.
The current policy of cajoling the government to reform without in
any way
reducing the resources it receives from the West is not working.
It is time for the
United States Government and its allies to take a tough and
principled stand
against the excesses of the de facto one-party state in Ethiopia
and use their
financial leverage against the regime to persuade it to change
before it is too late. I
believe such a coordinated financial pressure by western allies
will work to make
the regime change its ways. Some of the needed reforms might take
some time to
implement, but the government’s willingness to implement
meaningful reforms
14
can be measured by a number of verifiable actions that it can take
immediately.
These include, for example:
• To rescind the repressive (CSO and Anti-Terrorism) laws, to stop
the
persecution of political dissidents subject to using trumped up
terrorism
charges to prevent the country from descending into political
turmoil that
will have dire consequences for the region and the Continent as a
whole;
• To adhere to human rights principles in actions and not merely
in words;
• To release all political prisoners, journalists and human rights
defenders;
• To cease engaging in acts which violate internationally
recognized human
rights including: freedom of speech, freedom of religion and
freedom of
assembly and political rights,
• To open up the political space as well as the government owned
media so
that Ethiopians will participate fully in the governance of their
country; and
• To call for an open and constructive dialogue with all the
opposition forces
(both at home and abroad, armed and peaceful) in order to chart
the
country’s future together.
I know, Mr. Chairman, under your leadership your committee and
this House will
do its part for the wellbeing of the people of Ethiopia.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman and members of the committee for the
opportunity to
appear before you today. I stand ready to answer any questions you
might have.
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